Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 34.213970 36.932148 39.889630 43.369860 47.384022 51.907330 57.445971
2025-05-18 29.845678 33.381988 37.473474 42.635553 49.093388 57.079029 68.000451
2025-05-25 27.095454 30.976662 35.644256 41.809327 49.967670 60.768437 76.889302
2025-06-01 25.121064 29.190781 34.230001 41.127507 50.678590 64.073478 85.698863
2025-06-08 23.386811 27.506145 32.719825 40.054493 50.582263 66.063508 92.817758
2025-06-15 22.809852 27.218027 32.946964 41.284229 53.810434 73.422307 110.711223
2025-06-22 21.841686 26.329431 32.272707 41.137636 54.919684 77.576785 124.201786
2025-06-29 20.823940 25.299748 31.314332 40.461268 55.078083 80.100669 135.283511
2025-07-06 19.774696 24.163720 30.125721 39.325400 54.337825 80.864464 142.769480
2025-07-13 19.525020 24.102091 30.439882 40.478855 57.504845 89.454710 173.031233
2025-07-20 19.182552 23.885212 30.505110 41.233966 60.070935 97.464357 207.282799
2025-07-27 18.791685 23.574507 30.404677 41.701218 62.166958 105.002488 246.603131
2025-08-03 18.188785 22.947291 29.817099 41.357508 62.784699 109.595207 281.212052
2025-08-10 17.545915 22.235500 29.064754 40.681678 62.688044 112.524687 313.082566
2025-08-17 16.930937 21.537739 28.296141 39.916879 62.318033 114.700326 345.012629
2025-08-24 16.390802 20.928173 27.633102 39.285199 62.142657 117.374034 384.884882
2025-08-31 15.803494 20.227253 26.795380 38.290047 61.102476 117.465617 410.153299
2025-09-07 15.726198 20.281414 27.146228 39.430442 64.742609 132.104383 586.310781
2025-09-14 15.381198 19.917733 26.809861 39.294587 65.567022 138.583109 727.117108
2025-09-21 14.955560 19.416832 26.229552 38.667457 65.201062 141.100729 839.678214
2025-09-28 14.465992 18.804059 25.444644 37.613124 63.740724 139.524853 886.653260
2025-10-05 14.423634 18.873502 25.775719 38.683770 67.422947 157.756500 1598.639618
2025-10-12 14.309117 18.825983 25.909126 39.383864 70.334388 174.966910 3369.312438